Furnaces and water heaters both have confirmed next efficiency rules on the books. Central air and heat pumps don't — despite rumors of a 2027 SEER2 increase. Here's what's actually true.
Central air conditioner and heat pump minimum efficiency standards were last raised in January 2023, when the metric itself changed from SEER to SEER2 (a stricter, more realistic testing method that also lowered the effective ratings — a "14 SEER" unit under the old test is roughly a "13.4 SEER2" unit under the new one). Current regional minimums are SEER2 13.4 in the North and SEER2 14.3 in the South/Southwest.
As of this writing, there is no DOE rule raising those minimums again, and no proposed rule with a published date. You may see claims online about a "SEER2 15" or "SEER2 16" standard landing around 2027 — those aren't accurate; no such rule has been proposed or finalized.
DOE efficiency standards for major appliance categories do tend to get revisited on a roughly-decade cycle, and furnaces (2028) and water heaters (2029) both have confirmed next steps — see the related articles. It would be easy to assume AC/heat pump minimums are "obviously" next in line around the same window. But assuming a rule that hasn't been proposed is exactly the kind of guess we try not to make here — DOE hasn't announced one, so we're not going to tell you it's coming in 2030 just because that would fit a pattern.
DOE is required by law to periodically review efficiency standards for regulated products, so a future SEER2 increase is a reasonable long-run expectation — just not one with a date attached today. If you're weighing whether to buy now versus wait for a hypothetical future standard, that calculus should rest on your current equipment's condition and today's known costs (including the refrigerant and tariff pressures covered elsewhere in this section), not on a rule that doesn't exist yet.
We'll update this page if and when DOE actually proposes something for central AC/heat pump minimums.
HVAC Referee checks your actual quote against equipment, installation, and pricing standards — including which refrigerant and efficiency tier you're being quoted.